Update: Assessing the JCPoA Under the Newly Arriving Trump Administration

Contact: Morad Ghorban
Phone: (202)-828-8370
Email: Morad@PAAIA.org

Policymakers, Middle East analysts, and nuclear arms control experts want to know whether Iran will comply with the terms of the nuclear agreement. To help answer this question, the Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans (PAAIA) commissioned Global Impact Strategies (giStrat) in October 2016 to conduct a data driven scientific assessment of the JCPoA.

Using game theory and other behavioral sciences, the report provides an objective perspective on the most productive path to strengthening Iran’s compliance with the JCPoA.  The report indicates that under present conditions Iran is likely to comply with the JCPoA. It finds that the verification and data exchange protocols, coupled with a strong governing body, are the most important tools available to ensure Iran complies with the agreement.

The report also finds that the most significant motive for Iran to comply with the JCPoA is economic development. In this context, the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions has been just as critical in preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability as the verification and data exchange mechanisms set in place by the JCPoA.

The analysis concludes with two major recommendations for policymakers that would strengthen Iran’s compliance with the JCPoA:

•   Congress should uphold the threat of sanctions without instituting additional sanctions

•   Congress should maintain strong oversight of mechanisms related to data exchange and verification

After updating their analysis to accommodate the incoming Trump administration, giStrat finds that their conclusions still stand. However, their simulations indicate that Iran is less likely to comply with the agreement if additional sanctions are passed and that the P5+1 signatories will likely continue to do business with Iran under such circumstances.

Click here to read the complete report.

Click here to read the update on assessing the JCPoA under the Trump administration.

About PAAIA:

The Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, nonreligious organization that serves the interests of Iranian Americans and represents the community before U.S. policymakers and the American public at large.

About giStrat:

giStrat uses advanced decision analytics to help leaders solve their toughest problems. Their scientific data driven approaches assist decision makers formulate better strategies with less uncertainty.

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